#6# Feb 13th 2018
Why 5G may be both faster and slower than the previous wireless generation
为何5G可能比上一代无线技术既更快又更慢
The promise of 5G may not be met until the launch of 6G
5G的愿望可能到启用6G时才能实现了
goggles“FASTER, higher, stronger,” goes the Olympic motto. So it is only appropriate that the next generation of wireless technology, “5G” for short, should get its first showcase at the Winter Olympics under way in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Once fully developed, it is supposed to offer download speeds of at least 20 gigabits per second (4G manages about half that at best) and response times (“latency”) of below 1 millisecond. So the new networks will be able to transfer a high-resolution movie in two seconds and respond to requests in less than a hundredth of the time it takes to blink an eye. But 5G is not just about faster and swifter wireless connections.
“更快、更高、更强”是奥林匹克精神。所以它只适用于下一代无线技术（简称“5G”）首次应用于韩国平昌正在举办的冬季奥运会。一旦完全开发，它的下载速度应至少达到每秒20千兆比特（4G最快速度只能达到它的一半），反应时间（“延迟时间”）低于1毫秒。因此，新网络将在两秒内就能传送一部高清电影，并且用不了眨眼时间的百分之一就能对要求作出反应。但是5G并不仅仅关于更快更敏捷的无线连接。
The technology is meant to enable all sorts of new services. One such would offer virtual- or augmented-reality experiences. At the Olympics, for example, many contestants are being followed by 360-degree video cameras. At special venues sports fans can don virtual-reality goggles to put themselves right into the action. But 5G is also supposed to become the connective tissue for the internet of things, to link anything from smartphones to wireless sensors and industrial robots to self-driving cars. This will be made possible by a technique called “network slicing”, which allows operators quickly to create bespoke networks that give each set of devices exactly the connectivity they need.
该技术用来支撑各种新服务。有的会提供虚拟或增强现实的体验。例如在此次奥运会，许多选手被360度的摄像机跟拍。在特殊地方，运动迷们可以戴上护目镜将自身投入到运动中去。但是5G还应成为物联网的连接通道，将智能手机上任意东西与无线感应器、工业机器人和自驾汽车连接起来。这可以使一种叫做“网络切片”的技术成为可能，它允许操作者快速创建连接每个服务的定制网络。
Despite its versatility, it is not clear how quickly 5G will take off. The biggest brake will be economic. When the GSMA, an industry group, last year asked 750 telecoms bosses about the most salient impediment to delivering 5G, more than half cited the lack of a clear business case. People may want more bandwidth, but they are not willing to pay for it—an attitude even the lure of the fanciest virtual-reality applications may not change. And building 5G networks will not be cheap. Because of the higher frequencies, they will require more antennae, base stations and fibre-optic cables to connect them.
尽管5G拥有多功能，但是它启用后究竟有多快还不明朗。其最大的制约就是经济上的。一家叫GSMA的工业集团关于投递5G最显著的障碍，去年访问了750位电信老板，不止一半人都指出缺乏一份清晰的商业案例。人们可能想要更多的宽带，但是他们不愿为之付钱。这种对待昂贵的虚拟现实应用的态度甚至是引诱可能不会改变。而且建立5G网络也不会便宜。由于频率更高，网络将需要更多天线、基站和光纤电缆来连接它们。
Analysts expect that operators will roll out 5G more gradually than the previous wireless generation—and only in places where the numbers add up. Some will first use the technology to provide super-fast “fixed” wireless links between stationary antennae, which is less tricky to do. Other carriers may use 5G to get more out of the spectrum they own. Yet others will weave 5G networks to serve densely populated cities. In other words, 5G’s trajectory is likely to resemble that of 3G, which was launched in the early 2000s. It disappointed until it found its “killer application” with the smartphone, later that decade. And it was only with 4G that mobile networks actually lived up to the promises of 3G, such as being able to watch video streams. To really get 5G, people may have to wait for 6G.
分析人员期望操作者将5G逐渐铺开，超越上一代无线技术，而且只是在数量增加的地方。一些用户将率先使用该技术提供固定天线间超快、“固定”的无线连接，这种做法没那么狡猾。其他用户可能使用5G从他们拥有的范围中获得更多。然而其他人将编织5G网络来服务人口密集的城市。换句话说，5G的轨迹可能会和21世纪初期发行的3G的轨迹很相似。它一直令人失望，直到十年后发现了智能手机中的杀手软件。只有在4G网络下移动网络才真正实现了3G的愿望，比如可以观看视频流。那么要真正获得5G，人们可能得等待6G的到来。